“You Can’t Always Get What You Want” —Mick Jagger at Allegiant Stadium on Nov. 6. Was The Rolling Stones frontman foreseeing Sunday for bettors?
Unlike Mick and the guys, the Station Casinos Race and Sports Book was not giving gamblers shelter over the weekend, as the house once again beat the bettors thanks to a cavalcade of underdogs covering and winning outright. With ‘dogs going 10-5 against the spread, the book had a bigger day than those witty Station billboards littering the valley. Thankfully the STN Sports App can help bettors plot revenge.
Let’s look back at the week that was, and look forward to the coming week in sports betting…
Mr. Rodgers’ Neighborhood
The Green Bay Packers might have gotten a glimpse into their future signal caller after Jordan Love took the reins of the team against the Kansas City Chiefs on Nov. 6. The Pack, of course, was put in a less-than-ideal situation after Aaron Rodgers tested positive for COVID-19. Apparently MVP doesn’t stand for Most Vaccinated Player. While the Packers covered the number, the cheeseheads are not immune (nor is Rodgers) to losing, as they fell 13-7. Rodgers’ impact was felt in multiple ways.
“Rodgers is definitely one of those guys that the adjustment in the line move is going to be at least seven points when he’s not there,” Station Casinos Race and Sports Book Director Chuck Esposito said. This weekend, the Pack take on the Seattle Seahawks with Russell Wilson, who returns from finger surgery. Esposito thinks Ciara’s husband will be back at 100 percent.
Whether Rodgers plays is still up in the air, as he needs to clear COVID protocols, which won’t be known until Saturday. “I’ve been thinking he’ll be back, but there’s been a drop in the point spread on the game, so the bettors appear to be a little leery that he will come back,” Esposito said.
Barking Dogs
Steven Money (that’s me!) is old enough to remember when the J-E-T-S were the toast of the town after beating the Bengals… a week ago. That is old news now. The current darling at the book is another four-letter word: J-A-G-S, JAGS, JAGS, JAGS!
On Sunday, the fighting Urban Meyers took it to the Buffalo Bills, who were a 14.5 favorite. Not only did the Jags win, they won outright (and no touchdown was scored in the game.) The win also continued a current and stunning streak.
“This is the fourth straight year where you’ve had a 14 point or better underdog win the game outright,” Esposito said. “That hadn’t happened for something like the previous 20 years.” While the Jags are the North Star of the book right now, the Broncos, Giants and Titans will be getting a Christmas card from Esposito for their outright wins this past weekend. The cards will read: From Vegas With Love ™.
‘Dak To Earth’
November 6 was a day we all knew would eventually come. The Dallas Cowboys, a double-digit favorite, finally failed to cover the spread. Not only that, they got beat up badly… by Denver of all teams!? Big D = Big disappointment.
Never fear, ‘Boys fans, America’s Team plays in the worst division in football, so they still have the inside track for the lone NFC bye in the playoffs. Or do they? Esposito isn’t so sure that Dallas is a runaway winner in the NFC Least, and he’s even less convinced they’ll get the bye.
“They always seem to struggle in that division. Everybody seems to beat up each other,” Esposito said, citing the Giants’ improved play and the impending return of the bearded one, Ryan Fitzpatrick, to the Washington Football Team. “I’m not convinced that they’ll run the table in their division,” he said. “I think they still have an uphill battle to get home field. This week they finally came Dak to earth.” Pun intended!
Curry’s Court
How good are the Warriors going to be when Klay Thompson comes back? Golden State is on fire (well, it usually is, but it’s usually caused by a lightning strike, electrical grid failure or a gender reveal party.) Steph Curry and his band are strumming right along with the best record in the league. They’ll be even better when Thompson comes back.
“He adds so much to their team on both ends of the court that it’s such a one-two punch with him and Curry,” Esposito said. Between Thompson and Curry, they sink more than the Titanic. Coincidentally, the Warriors have also kept most of their games under the total, something that isn’t happening elsewhere.
“We’re still seeing totals fairly high,” Esposito said. “I think it’s just the product of the teams. There’s a lot more of an open game for the first three quarters before teams kind of lock it down a little bit in the fourth quarter.” In-play fourth quarter unders, anyone?
Net Gain
Let’s hear it for the boys! On Nov. 9, college basketball returned with a slate of, ho-hum, over 100 games. The only place you can find something sweeter than that is at The Bake Shop at Green Valley Ranch. The usual suspects — Kentucky, Villanova, Kansas, Duke and a few others — have the best odds to win it all.
“I think you’re going to see a lot of volatility early in the season with line moves and especially total moves,” Esposito said. For what it’s worth, typically the team ranked No. 1 to begin the season doesn’t cut down the nets in the end and listen to “One Shining Moment.” Tough break, Gonzaga, tough break.
Ice Capades
Over on the ice, the Vegas Golden Knights appear to be allergic to young draft picks, having traded ANOTHER young player or high draft pick for a proven commodity. (Welcome to Vegas, Jack Eichel, try the Hearthstone brunch!) The Florida Panthers, Carolina Hurricanes and Edmonton Oilers, meanwhile, seem to be allergic to losing, as all three have gotten off to stellar starts. The Oilers, though, have caught Esposito’s eye.
“Connor McDavid has had a chip on his shoulder for a while and wants to prove that the Oilers aren’t only a good regular season team, but a good postseason team,” he said. “I kind of think this might be his year.” With the Knights being so banged up and seemingly the only real threat to the Oilers in the Pacific, Edmonton could conceivably run away with the division really early.
Pro Tip
Unlike NHL players, bettors are actively looking to catch an edge, and there’s one that’s tried and true: find a hockey team on the second game of a back-to-back and bet against it.
“Hockey teams that have played back-to-back have not played well in the second game this year,” Esposito said. “That’s been a trend before, but I know that that’s kind of been a big factor this season so far.”
Beat It
Condolences go out to Minnesota Timberwolves bettors who were on the wrong end of a you-gotta-be-kidding-me bad beat on Monday night. Let’s paint the picture: the Wolves came into the game as two-score underdogs against the Grizzlies. With 1.1 seconds left, the Grizz were up by three points and Minny fans could smell their winnings, as their bets were well within the number. Just end the game, right? Well, from nearly half court and with his team down by three, Minnesota’s Karl-Anthony Towns made a deep basket off the backboard, and he didn’t even have the audacity to call bank!
A bank would also not be in the future for Wolves fans. In overtime, the Grizz roared and won by 7 and covered. Because of KAT, Minnesota backers didn’t CASH. [Obscenities go here.]