The public, though, crushed the book with the Bills and 49ers both covering easily. With all that in mind, let’s quickly look back over the sport’s landscape and dish out some insight on what’s ahead on the field, on the diamond, on the ice, on the STN Sports App and at the Station Casinos Race and Sports Book.
Pigskin Plays
So far, the NFL has been the land of the underdogs. Through five weeks, 60% of underdogs are covering the lines, and unders are cashing at a 57% clip. Underdogs and unders are where the Sports Book usually makes its hay (unders are cashing at an even higher pace in primetime games.) “The louder the puppies bark, the quieter the crowd is,” Esposito said. With game totals trending lower, the NFL is going the opposite direction than the economy. What inflation! Ironically, one game that went over was the Raiders/Chiefs matchup, which was good for the Book — and Station’s In-Play option was also good for the Book.
“There definitely was some In-Play on the Chiefs, and most of those hit, but there was a lot more money that came in on the under. That was kind of the sharp side,” Esposito said. “With the early scoring and the total kind of elevated on In-Play, they were still betting the under, so having that game go over on the In-Play actually helped a little bit.”
Sunday Look-Ahead
This Sunday’s slate features two very sexy matches. First, Buffalo travels to Kansas City in a rematch of the last year’s epic playoff game. The early action has been on the Bills, as that number has gone up a full point. When was the last time we saw the Chiefs an underdog at home? Over the NFC, the Cowboys head to Philly to take on the undefeated Eagles. The line opened with the Eagles favored by 5 points, but Esposito thinks the line might be too high… like Willie Nelson on a Saturday night.
“My personal take is that even if it’s Cooper Rush, it’s too high. The Cowboys defensively have been phenomenal. The Eagles, although they’re 5-0, after the first quarter, their offense has got a little bit stale,” he said. “They play really conservative football and I just think that’s a huge number.” But, Esposito believes the number will come down (if you like Dallas, get them now!) The line will certainly drop if Dak Prescott ends up being the announced starter, but that Dallas defense keeps them in every game. For those Dallas haters who can’t stomach betting in the ‘Boys, maybe eyeball a Philly first-half bet, as Jalen Hurts and Co. are No. 1 in first quarter scoring… They’re last in second half scoring.
“This is their most serious task. I think the Cowboys have had a much more difficult early season schedule and winning that game against Rams with a backup quarterback and really never trailing in that game was an impressive statement game for Dallas,” Esposito said. “And although Philly’s undefeated, and I’m probably in the minority, I think on a neutral field this game is really close to pick ‘em.”
College Ball
USC has been a respectable 4-2 against the spread this season, and they’ve yet to be an underdog. That changes on Saturday when they head to Salt Lake City to take on the Utah Utes, who opened as 3-point favorites and have seen the number go up. “We have to remember that USC really struggled on the road when they were a small favorite against Oregon State, and this is a much better Utah team at home,” Esposito said. “My guess is by kickoff you’re going to see this number drop. If you like USC, I suggest you get them now because I don’t see it moving up any more. I see it moving down.”
We’re drawing near the end of the Last Man Standing Contests. Through 5 weeks, only 180 entries are still active in the NFL Last Man Standing contests (337 entries were active entering last weekend.) The contest began with 6,284 entries. Over in the college football contest, 106 entries remain active (182 entries were active entering last weekend.) That contest began with 2,908 entries.
Mr. October
This one is more cruel than those Steve Sisolak and Adam Laxalt commercials! On Saturday, a Station Casinos guest wagered $30,000 on the Toronto Blue Jays in Game 2 of baseball’s Wild Card round. The Jays were up 8-1 at the bottom of the 5th inning and were set to coast to an easy win against the Mariners. Suddenly, Seattle got a shot of caffeine and turned things around, putting four runs on the board in 6th and 8th innings. They added a decisive run in the 9th, too, which won the game.
“That is a very bad beat,” Esposito opined. “I’m sure that individual pretty much had that money spent when it was 8-1.” That game will now be known as the 30Kollapse.
The Mariners, Guardians, Phillies, Padres were all underdogs in their Wild Card series and all won. Just imagine that parlay! Still, despite the underdogs beating the odds, Esposito warns bettors against hammering the ‘dogs in the next round.
“I don’t think that’s going to be the case in the next round,” he said. “I could clearly see it kind of being more true to form and having the Braves, Dodgers, Yankees and Astros just because of the rest factor and that they’re able to set up their rotations, which I think is kind of key.” In the playoffs and public relationships, pitching is paramount.
Baseball betting is on an uptick at Station Casinos, but there’s also more baseball to be had. This season marked the first time MLB unleashed its new Wild Card format, wherein the one-game Wild Card is gone, having been replaced by two best-of-three series in each league. For the Book, that’s just more action. “For us it’s great,” Esposito said. “It adds three full games you can bet on, which is tremendous for our side of the counter.” That’s more games, that’s more homers, that’s more strikes and that’s more curves than Sofia Vergara.
Bets To Know
VGK is BACK! It may still be 85 degrees and sunny on certain days in October but that doesn’t mean Vegas can’t take the ice… and take bets. The Golden Knights are back in action this week to start the season, with plenty of props to boot. Bet each game along with additional props like Y/N Make The Playoffs, Regular Season Points, and more.
Weekly Winners
NBA Preseason is here and this STN Sports bettor capitalized! Check out this 8-teamer, $50 to win $4,050!
Warriors -4.5 -110
Spurs +5 -110
Thunder +5.5 -110
Blazers OV 218.5 -110
Jazz UN 216.5 -110
Bucks OV 230 -110
Pistons UN 214 -110
Magic UN 214.5 -110