With all that in mind, let’s quickly look back over the sport’s landscape and dish out some insight on what’s ahead on the field, the ice, on the STN Sports App and at the Station Casinos Race and Sports Books.
Football Follies
As we were all doing our own Joey Chestnut impressions and stuffing ourselves silly on Thanksgiving, guests were biting their nails to at the final minutes of the games. In end, the underdogs went 2-1 on Thursday. Although the Lions’ cover put the Book in the black, it was in a catch-22 on the Giants/Cowboys game.
“We were clearly Giants fans, no question about it, but we really needed to keep that game under,” said Chuck Esposito, Station Casinos Race and Sports Book Director. That didn’t happen, as New York punched in a fairly meaningless touchdown with 8 seconds remaining, which covered the spread and the over (a double bad beat!) “That late touchdown let us cover the game, but it hurt us bad on the over. That was the most heavily bet total of the three games that day, and everyone was on the over.”
Having that game go over caused the Book to have liability going into the Patriots/Vikings game. Then, having the Vikings cover and the game go over the total was “the worse case outcome,” Esposito said. By the way, the Giants/‘Boys game was the most-watched regular season game in NFL history, and the handle wasn’t too bad either. “That one probably generated the most handle on Thanksgiving,” Esposito said.
Bad Beat Weekend
Like a deadmau5 set at a Vegas nightclub, the beats were really bad on Saturday and Sunday. The Utah State/Boise State game will make Aggies backers sick for a long time. The boys from Logan, Utah, entered the game as 17-point underdogs and were down by just 5 in the Bronco’s red zone with 1:33 left in the game. They had a chance to win the freaking game! Suddenly, the Aggies QB forgot who his teammates were and threw not one, but two pick-six’s which help Boise to a 42-23 win and cover. Utah State could have won the game outright with under two minutes left but ended up losing by 19! That’s more improbable than NDOT finishing a project on time.
Over on the NFL side, bad beats in the Baltimore/Jacksonville game and Browns/Bucs game worked in favor of the Book. However, bad beats in the Commanders/Falcons game and 49ers/Saints games went for the guests. The 49ers/Saints game was the biggest decision of the day on Sunday, with San Fransisco closing as 9.5-point favorites. The Niners only scored 13 points and somehow covered the number. How? Well, the Saints missed a field goal and had 11 plays from inside the 10-yard line and couldn’t score.
Let’s…Ride?
No bet is a sure thing, but the Broncos are almost an exception to the rule. The “Let’s Ride” guys have an over-under record of 1-10. They are cashing unders at a 91% clip. “The offensive struggles are just monumental,” Esposito said, noting that bettors can’t back away from the Broncos fast enough. How bad has Russell Wilson been under center? Carson Wentz and Joe Flacco have the same amount of touchdown passes as him. Wentz hasn’t played since Week 6; Flacco hasn’t seen the field since Week 3. On the flip side, the Broncos defense is incredible. In fact, if Denver averaged even 19 points a game, they’d be 10-1. Instead, they’re averaging 14.3, which more than five points less than they were scoring last season with Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater at the helm. The Broncos offense is at a standstill more than the cars in Primm after a holiday weekend.
Utah/USC
Is the Utah/USC line softer than the gnocchi at Bottiglia? When the line for the PAC 12 championship game was set, the Trojans were a minuscule favorite. Since then, the number has shot up like a diabetic. “I think you can make a case that this game could probably be closer to a pick’em,” Esposito said. USC’s one loss this season came last month at the hands of this same Utah squad (who are the defending PAC 12 champs.)
“Given our close proximity to Southern California, the USC bias out here is quickly driving the number up. Industry-wide, there’s a lot of money line action on USC, as well.” So far, that’s all public money, as the sharps have yet to weigh in. It’s likely they’re waiting to see how high the number goes before possibly pouncing on the Utes. It’s a different story with the Big 12 championship game, as Kansas State, the underdog, is getting most the early love from the sharps. The public will likely bet TCU heavy in that one.
“I think both ‘dogs, Utah and Kansas State, are clearly live,” Esposito said. “In Utah’s case, I see potential value there if the number keeps creeping up.”
We Want The Cup! Part 1
USA! USA! USA! The good guys advanced to the knockout stage, and the public’s wallets couldn’t be happier. The sharps were largely betting Iran at a juiced up price in Tuesday’s game. “We’re seeing tremendous action, handle and excitement,” Esposito said. “There’s groups of people that are camped out in the Books early in the day to watch these World Cup games.” Whereas the public is generally winning with favorites, the Book is winning big with the draws.
We Want The Cup! Part 2
The Vegas Golden Knights are still one of the top teams in the league, but they’re looking a little different these days. They have freaking glow-in-the-dark jerseys! Glow, Knights, Glow!! Now, the illuminated squad has come back down to earth after a scorching hot start to the season, but the public is doing well as they continue to back the VGK on a pretty constant basis. Fans, though, are starting to cool on betting the Knights on the puck line. “I’d say Vegas is still a good bet. The only reason I’m not saying a great bet is because you’re probably looking at inflated lines on them out here because of our bias,” Esposito said. “From a fan perspective, we want to see them do well. From a business perspective, losses sprinkled in are good. And, if the game goes under and they don’t cover the puck line, those are good results for us.”
Weekly Winners
A HUGE college football parlay hit over the weekend, with $500 winning $64,034.21 on an 8-teamer. Check it out:
WASH -2 -120 B (+.5)
TEX TECH +110
USC -4 -120 B(+.5)
TCU -9.5 -110
AUBURN +22 -110
MINN +135
DUKE +135
OREG ST -1 -110
Bets To Know
It’s the knockout stage! World Cup action is at a frenzy, and we’ve got the betting menu to match. Check out the app for tons of prop options on players, teams, outcomes, and more as the action continues.