“You have to favor the AFC in a mythical head-to-head in the Super Bowl right now,” said Chuck Esposito, Station Casinos’ Race and Sports Book Director. But, like a TSA line at the airport after CES, there’s a long way to go until we get to our endgame.
With all that in mind, let’s quickly look back over the sports landscape and dish out some insight on what’s ahead on the field on the STN Sports App and at the Station Casinos Race and Sports Books.
National Championship Blowout
That team from the Peach State delivered a sweet victory for the Station Casinos Race and Sports Books on Monday night. Georgia came into the National Championship game as heavy favorites again TCU, and you saw why during that 65-7 shellacking. “We were in real good shape with Georgia on the future’s book, but we had some liability on TCU, a six-figure liability,” Esposito said. “We were Georgia fans in that game. There was a lot of action on TCU with the spread and moneyline.”
The Book, though, didn’t lose on the game’s total, as it soared over the closing number of 62. Still, Georgia winning and covering was key to a profitable day behind the counter due to the influx of Frogs dollars.
The largest bet of the day at Station Books was on TCU, as a guest bet $45,000 on Max Duggan’s squad. Not only that, TCU began the season as a 500-to-1 long shot to win the natty, and one person had a $25 ticket on the Frogs at that price. But all good things must come to an end, and the TCU cinderella story did just that on Monday night. Simply put, the Frogs ran into a bigger buzzsaw than the one being used to build Durango Resort.
Playoff Time
The biggest questions hovering over wildcard weekend of the NFL playoffs: Will Lamar Jackson or Tua Tagovailoa be under center for the Ravens and Dolphins, respectively? Both teams enter the playoffs as underdogs of a touchdown or more, and those numbers might continue to climb. “Those spreads right now are leaning toward neither quarterback playing,” Esposito said.
In Miami’s case, third-stringer Skylar Thompson seems likely to lead the offense, which is a huge advantage for Buffalo. That’s a tough break for Miami, who hasn’t been in the playoffs since 2016. Over in Baltimore, Jackson has been less available than a Cox Cable customer service representative. He hasn’t played in well over a month. Additionally, the Ravens have had one (ONE!) touchdown pass to a wide receiver over the last 10 weeks.
“They’re not a good offensive team right now, and they haven’t been for quite some time,” Esposito said, noting that there’s a huge drop off in the AFC after the top three seeds.
Primetime Monday
Monday night’s matchup between Dallas and Tampa is nearly as swanky as the forthcoming Rouge Room in Red Rock. To start, Tom Brady is getting points at home, which is more rare than a Charcoal Room steak. The Bucs might actually be undervalued, too.
“I don’t think they’re great, but they finished fairly strong and you’re just asking them to win a couple of games,” Esposito opined. Also, Tampa beat Dallas in Week One rather easily. Esposito added, “It’s hard to go against Brady at home getting points. And I think the bettors have felt the same way, as we’ve seen this number come down under three.”
This is no slight at Dallas, either, who has a Super Bowl-caliber defense. However, it’s not hyperbole to say the Cowboys’ path in the playoffs falls directly on quarterback Dan Prescott’s shoulders… and Prescott hasn’t exactly been knocking ‘em dead this year. Having said that, it wouldn’t shock anyone if Dallas was playing in the big game either. The D is Big D stands for “dunno”!
Philly Special?
The Eagles are the No. 1 seed in the NFC, but are they really the best squad on that side of the bracket? “I’m more optimistic about the 49ers than the Eagles right now, because Hurts didn’t look good for the Eagles,” Esposito said. San Francisco currently has slightly lower Super Bowl odds than Philadelphia in the future’s book.
Of the top four seeded teams in the conferences, the 49ers also present the biggest liability for the Book. If things fall their way, 49ers backers could clean up faster than a high school kid who threw a party at his vacationing parent’s house.
Uncertainly around San Fransisco clearly revolves around the quarterback position. There’s no question that Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy has done exceptionally well since being thrust into the driver’s seat, but the playoffs are a different beast. Knowing this, sharp bettors have been jumping on the Niners’ first round opponent, the Seattle Seahawks, and taking the points.
“I’m a little surprised they’re on the Seahawks, but Gino Smith is really have an incredible year,” Esposito said. San Fransisco beat the Seahawks twice this year, once by 20 points, and once by eight points. They enter this weekend’s game as nearly double-digit favorites.
Is Minnesota Good?
The Minnesota Vikings present quite the conundrum. Is the No. 3 seeded team actually any good? After eeking out close win after close win all season, they’ve definitely had more luck than a cereal box leprechaun.
Although they come into the matchup against the Giants as field goal favorites, Esposito sees them as a bit overvalued. Similarly, Station’s top oddsmaker isn’t as bullish on the Los Angeles Chargers either, as they continue to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. L.A. is a small favorite against Jacksonville in a game that’s basically a coin flip.
“They seem to find ways to lose,” Esposito said of the Chargers. “The Jags are playing really well right now.” The Chargers were a very vogue pick to win the whole enchilada when the season began, as they presented nice value to bettors. “They had a very favorable schedule down the stretch, but they’ve done some very questionable things.” Not long after playoff lines were posted, guests swooped in and bet the Jags.
Bets To Know
The NFL is like ordering at a Mexican restaurant: combinations are key. This week, the STN Sports App and the Station Casinos Race and Sports Books posted odds on all 49 Super Bowl combinations. Will it be Buffalo/San Fransisco? Kansas City/Philly? Maybe the long shot Jags/Giants?
In addition, several Super Bowl props are already up, including the division of the eventual winner and multiple bets not necessarily tied to certain teams, such as the coin toss.
Weekly Winners
A nice little cross-sport 3-teamer for this STN Sports bettor January 9! $150 turns to $1,850:
- -KRAKEN -1.5 +115
- -KINGS -1.5 +225
- -1H Georgia -7.5 -110