“Going into the weekend, our mindset was that we had to win at least one of those games, so we needed Baltimore, Miami, or Seattle. And, if we get an outright winner that would’ve even been better,” said Chuck Esposito, Station Casinos’ Race and Sports Book Director. In the end, two of the three underdogs in those games (Miami and Baltimore) covered the line. Seattle, though, had a quicker exit than Bobby Petrino in an 18-point loss in San Francisco.
With all that in mind, let’s quickly look back over the sports landscape and dish out some insight on what’s ahead on the field on the STN Sports App and at the Station Casinos Race and Sports Books.
Rest Easy, Dallas
Breaking news: Tom Brady is human after all. Before Monday night’s Dallas Cowboys/Tampa Bay Buccaneers game, many national pundits assumed Brady and his squad were a shoo-in for the next round. Not so fast, my friends. On Monday as a small favorite, Dallas brought more heat than the Vegas summer sun. Brady couldn’t get comfortable in the pocket and it showed, as Dallas cruised to an easy 31-14 win. At Station, the Book was in pretty decent shape regardless of the winner, but it desperately needed to keep the game under 45.5 points. Of course, that happened, but largely due to Dallas’ kicker, Brett Maher, missing four (FOUR!) extra points.
“I’ve never appreciated a missed extra point more than I did that game, and I appreciated all four,” Esposito said. “The magic number was 45. Anything above 45 and we would have been in trouble.” Dallas now heads to San Francisco for the divisional round, and the Niners are the favorite. Having played on Saturday, San Francisco will also have two more days of rest than the Cowboys, who played on Monday night. Traditionally teams on a short week don’t succeed in the NFL.
“The Niners don’t have to travel, but the Cowboys have to travel. The Niners have two extra days of rest. That could be a difference maker,” Esposito said. “I think you’re going to see a lot of Niners money show late on this game.” Still, this is easily Brock Purdy’s biggest test since taking over as quarterback of San Francisco. The teams he beat to end the regular season had a combined record of 44-57.
Dallas, meanwhile, was fighting for the top overall seed until the last day of the regular season, and it has a legitimate Super Bowl-caliber defense.
Jags All Charged Up
Up 27-0 in the second quarter, the Los Angeles Chargers looked to be in overdrive against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and Station oddsmakers were set to cue up the fat lady. “We were clearly Chargers fans and thinking about lighting up those cigars with a big lead,” Esposito said.
But then Los Angeles made some questionable play calls and Jacksonville finished like it was trying to make a baby. The Jags outscored Los Angeles 24-3 in the second half and got a game-winning field goal in the end. It was one of the largest comebacks in playoff history. One Station bettor had a $50,000 bet on the Jags at +2.5, so that person’s emotions were more all over the map than the Tinder Swindler.
Now the Jags are set up to play the No. 1 seeded Kansas City Chiefs, a team that beat Doug Pederson’s squad earlier this season 27-17. In that game, the Jags were down big in the first half (sound familiar?) and they came back to make it interesting. Going into Saturday’s game, Jacksonville again finds itself as an underdog of more than a touchdown. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are fairly horrific against the spread this season, going 5-11-1.
“The Jags are kind of playing with house money. They had back-to-back years with the No. 1 overall pick in the draft and now they’re playing in the divisional round,” Esposito said. “If there’s a team that no one really expected to be here, it’s definitely the Jags, followed by the Giants.” One thing to remember: Andy Reid, Kansas City’s head coach, has a 28-5 record when coming off a bye, including the playoffs. That’s a better record than Pink Floyd’s “The Dark Side Of The Moon.”
The Rematch of the Game That Never Happened
The Buffalo Bills entered the season as the Super Bowl favorite, and they’re still among the most likely candidates to hoist the trophy, but they struggled to reel in a win last weekend against the Miami Dolphins. The Bills closed as a 13.5-point favorite, and the general public was all over Josh Allen’s team. Buffalo opened a 17-0 lead, but the Fins clawed back, only to lose 34-31.
“Getting the Dolphins to not only cover the game but cover the teasers really kind of changed the entire complexion of the weekend, which put us in a much more advantageous spot,” Esposito said. The Bill now face off against Cincinnati, which is a rematch of the game that was supposed to happen on Jan. 2 but was ultimately canceled due to the Damar Hamlin situation. Like Buffalo, Cincy also struggled in the wildcard round as a big favorite against a division opponent and backup quarterback.
“It would’ve been Nirvana if we could have gotten the Ravens to win outright, but them covering the spread really reduced any liability we had on that one,” Esposito said. Bettors are already reacting to Cincinnati’s struggles, too, as the early action for next week’s game has been on Buffalo — so much so that the line has moved up more than a point from its opening line.
Giant Win
Will the real Daniel Jones please stand up? The New York Giants quarterback has been scrutinized ever since he was drafted, but he stepped up when his team needed him most last weekend against the favored Minnesota Vikings. The Giants were universally considered the most live underdog of the week, and they showed why, winning 31-24 in Minneapolis. Now they face the top-seeded Eagles, who might have an ailing quarterback in Jalen Hurts but who also come off a bye week, which is a big advantage.
“Being division rivals these two teams know each other really, really well. I think there’s an added amount of pressure on the Eagles just because of the familiarity with the Giants and kind of the way the Giants play,” Esposito said.
“There has been a little Giants love since we put this up from the sharp bettors.” The Eagles are a favorite of more than a touchdown, and Philly money is expected to come in hot and heavy — like Brass Fork’s Country Fried Steak breakfast. “The public has always historically bet teams that have the bye,” Esposito said.
Bets To Know
As the field dwindles down, you might think you have a good idea of who might end up on the big stage in February. STN Sports offers exact matchup odds for any combination of teams to meet for the Big Game. So if you think you know who might make it out of their respective conferences, it’s a fun future to look into.
Weekly Winners
Wild Card, wild winner! This STN Sports bettor hit an IMPRESSIVE $20 8-teamer. It paid $3,020.
- – GIANTS OV 48.5 -110
- – GIANTS +3 -110
- – CHARGERS OV 47.5 -110
- – JAGUARS +2.5 -110
- – SEAHAWKS OV 42 -110
- – 49ERS -10 -110
- – DOLPHINS OV 43.5 -110
- – DOLPHINS +13.5 -110