Points in the NFL are more up than a tourist chugging a case of Red Bull. Overs went 13-3 in the second week of the NFL, which always spells doom for sports books. And, that held true again. “It was not good that the overs covered. We usually need the unders almost every day. Historically we usually need the unders,” said Chuck Esposito, Station Casinos’ Race and Sports Book Director. The house saw better luck with some spreads on Saturday and Sunday.
With all that in mind, let’s quickly look back at the past week in sports and peek at what’s ahead on the STN Sports App and at the Station Casinos Race and Sports Books…
Bad, Bad Beat
While the early slate of games produced some wins for the Station Casinos Race and Sports Books (hello, Seahawks and Bills), it was also responsible for some losses (Chiefs and Buccaneers.) However, life was beautiful when the Book was on the right side of a bad beat in Los Angeles.
With time winding down at SoFi Stadium, San Fransisco was up by 10 points on the Rams and well on the way to a red-and-gold cover. But, just milliseconds before the game ended, the Rams booted a field goal to end the game 30-23. They closed as 7.5-point underdogs, meaning they covered the line with that significant-to-some kick. Although some sharp money came in on the Rams early, the ticket count was hugely in favor of San Fransisco.
“That was a huge swing,” Esposito said. “In an educated guess, I would say that industry-wide there was probably a seven-figure swing on that field goal.” Like that fighter jet in South Carolina, those 49ers payouts suddenly vanished. Esposito added, “Having that game end at seven points was an extremely good outcome for us and probably saved the day in the NFL.”
Monday Night Mayhem
There was a lot of money heading into Monday Night Football’s doubleheader. Although a Station Casinos guest placed a $30,000 bet on Pittsburgh, the book was still siding with the underdog Steelers. Nothing against the AFC North battle, but bettors seemed to have a much more watchful eye on the earlier game between New Orleans and Carolina. Late in the game, the heavily-bet Saints were up by 11 points but the Panthers marched down the field to score a touchdown with just over a minute left. They then punched in a two-point conversion to make it a three-point game. The game ended with a 20-17 score, which meant the spread pushed. With the exception of pregnancy, pushes are sometimes anticlimactic. In Vegas, pushes can be coveted.
“We kind of got a miracle push there. We were in a really bad spot because we were really three-to-one on ticket counts in favor of the Saints,” Esposito said. “That was the bigger decision of the doubleheader. So we really needed the Panthers either to win or cover the 3 points, but we’ll actually take the push. It was kind of a miracle.” STN Sports Books were a small loser on Monday night but had the Saints covered, oddsmakers would have been more battered than a Tailgate Social onion ring.
Ch-Ch-Changes
Oddsmakers now know a lot more about certain teams than they did in early September and have adjusted lines. The Chicago Bears, for instance, are worse than anyone could have suspected. The Falcons and Dolphins are better than expected.
“The public is already backing the fish,” Esposito said. “If Tua [Tagovailoa] stays healthy, they’re going to be a team that we’ll be rooting against quite frequently this year.” Granted, things are early, but three NFC teams appear to be the creme of the conference crop: Dallas, San Fransisco and Philadelphia. All three have defenses that drop hits like an iHeartRadio Music Festival artist. The AFC is much more wide-open.
An interesting tidbit: The AFC v NFC Super Bowl line had the former set as a 2.5-point favorite in the preseason. Since then, largely due to the play of the aforementioned NFC trio, the way-too-early Super Bowl line is now a pick ‘em.
The Best of the Rest
How bad is Joe Burrow’s calf injury? The Cincinnati Bengals host the Los Angeles Rams on Monday night, but the NFL’s highest-paid player might not be suiting up. The minuscule spread indicates that the STN Sports Book don’t believe Burrow will play.
“They would be about a touchdown favorite if he was playing,” Esposito said. Over in Cleveland, Nick Chubb is out for the season after a gruesome leg injury suffered on Monday night. Although Jerome Ford filled in admirably for the Browns, it’s widely expected that Cleveland will scour the market for a running back, and most believe that new man on campus will be either ex-Brown Kareem Hunt or Rams running back Cam Akers, who is on the trading block. Esposito said,
“I don’t see the Browns have a huge line adjustment, especially if they go out and get someone like Hunt or Akers.” If the Browns want to contend, they’re gonna have to be like Juvenile in 1998 and back that thang up.
Colorado Comes Down To Earth?
In the offseason, fans and media pundits were talking a lot of crap about Deion Sanders’ handling of his Colorado Buffaloes team, and he’s been collecting receipts like a public toilet. Last weekend, for the first time this season, the Buffs faced adversity. Colorado went into their game against rival Colorado State as three-possession favorites, and they escaped late in the night with an 8-point win. It was the first time this season the STN Sports Book won a Colorado game.
“That game was huge,” Esposito said. “In a perfect world, Colorado State covers but doesn’t win and the game stays under the 61. We didn’t get the under, but it was a really good outcome for us.” It was “by far” the largest bet game on the board on Saturday (Colorado’s Week 2 game against Nebraska was also the most-bet college game last weekend.) Now, though, things get serious for the Buffs, as they travel to Oregon to take on the Ducks. Oregon opened as 19.5-point favorites and the line has gone up, meaning the STN Sports Books are taking in a lot of Ducks money.
“A lot can change between now and kickoff. Oregon is a team that has a lot of talent on offense, so I’m not surprised that there’s been some early push on the Ducks,” Esposito said, “but I’m anxious to see if we see some Colorado money. They’ve gotten a lot of backing for the first three weeks.” If the money continues to come in on Oregon, this would mark the first time all season that the Book is on the Deion hype train.
Bets To Know
“Football” is the focus, in more ways than one. The STN Sports App offers bets on all major soccer leagues, especially as the UEFA Champions League heats up.
Weekly Winners
A home run parlay for this STN Sports bettor, turning an $800 8-teamer into $85,655.12 on Sept. 19!
-RAYS -1.5 -115
-MARLINS -153
-BLUE JAYS EV
-CUBS -1.5 +115
-BREWERS -127
-RANGERS -154
-ORIOLES 0V 9 -110
-MARINERS -225