We are now officially in the Christmas season, but the STN Sports Books are already saying “bah humbug.” During the long Thanksgiving weekend, favorites in the NFL went 11-3-1 against the spread, letting guest fatten their wallets in addition to their turkey-filled belly.
“It was one of the best weekends of the year for the guests in the NFL,” said Chuck Esposito, Station Casinos’ Race and Sports Book Director. “There are so many bad teams that it’s easy to bet against a lot of these teams, particularly the ones with young, inexperienced quarterbacks. Guests are kind of riding that wave right now. There just seems to be a huge gap between the haves and the have nots.” The Book was able to bookend some wins, as Detroit lost on Thanksgiving’s first game, and the Vikings unable to be victorious against the Bears to cap off Week 12. On Monday night, 76% of the tickets were on Minnesota, so a Bears outright victory kept the House from nausea.
With all that in mind, let’s quickly look back at the past week in sports and peek at what’s ahead on the STN Sports app and at the Station Casinos Race and Sports Books…
Broncos Coming?
Don’t look now, but the Denver Broncos are rolling — yes, the same Broncos team that gave up 70 points against the Dolphins earlier this year. They’ve now rattled off five straight games and are somehow in the hunt for a playoff spot. Just a month ago we were all selling off the Broncos like it was a Las Vegas Sands Corp. stock. Entering the season, Denver was a very trendy future book pick, so there is some significant liability Sean Payton’s squad.
“They really are playing well right now,” Esposito said after Denver’s 29-12 win against Cleveland. “Defensively they’ve been pretty stout. Russell Wilson’s played better. They seem to have turned the corner a bit and are playing much, much better.” This week, the Broncos head to Houston, where they’re underdogs of about a field goal.
“For guests, the NFL is very much a what-have-you-seen-last league. You’ve seen the Broncos really play well late,” Esposito said. “The guest mindset is that they are a pretty good team, but we’ll see. At this point the jury’s still a little bit out on them. They’re kind of on the outside looking in right now, but they’ve closed the gap.”
Early Scoring
Scoring early isn’t just a mantra at UNLV fraternities — it’s also been a trend of late. On Sunday, an STN bettor wagered $50,000 on the Buffalo Bills scoring over 14 points in the first half against the Philadelphia Eagles. The bet cashed when the Bills had 17 on the board heading into halftime. Another bettor, however, didn’t have as much luck when betting Ravens to cover its first half total. One week prior, a STN guest successfully wagered $40,000 on the Bills going over its first half total against the Jets.
“That seems to be a popular bet of late, teams’ first half totals. We’re seeing a lot of action on those,” Esposito said. Also, because of all the favorites winning, the STN Books saw multiple 10-team parlays cash.
Niners/Eagles
With six teams on a bye this upcoming week, there will be fewer football than normal. It’s basically the Jimmy Garoppolo of weeks in that there’s just not a lot of football being played. Week 13, however, is definitely highlighted by the 49ers/Eagles game. Despite having the best record in the NFL and playing at home, Philly enters the game as a field goal underdog. You’ll recall that the Eagles knocked the 49ers out of the playoffs last year in the NFC Championship game, and Brock Purdy got hurt in the process.
“The Eagles have found a way to win in the end, but they’ve really struggled the last couple weeks. The 49ers have looked dominant since their three-game losing streak, and this is a revenge game for them,” Esposito said. “I’m a little surprised that the Niners are favorites by so much. I thought if they were the favorite, you might see them around a one-point favorite.” Having said that, early play has been on the 49ers. “If the number stays where it is, I could see a lot of action on the Eagles as it gets closer to the weekend,” Esposito added.
College Slate
The last weekend of regular season college football saw guests going colder than a Vegas winter. STN Books had a phenomenal day with teams such as Ohio State, Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina and even UNLV not covering.
“It was just kind of a snowball, one game after another that we were winning,” Esposito said. If the STN Books want to continue that trend, they will likely be rooting for the underdogs in the conference championship games, including two that will take place in Vegas at the same venue within 19 hours of each other. On Friday night, Oregon and Washington will battle it out for the PAC 12 title and a spot in the College Football Playoffs. Although Washington already beat Oregon this year, the Ducks enter the game as heavy favorites.
“Last year I remember the PAC 12 championship game garnered a huge handle. We saw some huge bets come in. Both Oregon and Washington’s fans travel well and it’s an isolated game here on Friday night, so we should see a huge handle on that game,” Esposito said. “Although Washington’s undefeated, they’re kind of trending a little bit in the opposite direction. Oregon has looked great and they’re in the top five in the country defensively. If I’m Washington, I mean it’s definitely bulletin board material knowing that you’re almost double digit dogs in this game. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the number come down a bit.”
Funny enough, the total for the PAC 12 Championship is hovering around 67. By contrast, the total for the Big Ten Championship Game is in the mid 30s. To put it in even starker terms, Michigan is almost a four touchdown favorite. “I could see maybe Michigan going over the total by themselves, but that’s just me,” Esposito said.
Last Man Standing
The Last Man Standing competitions are getting more stripped down than a Travis Kelce Crazy Horse 3 T-shirt. Only four entries from a field of 6,324 remain in the hunt for the $150,000 prize in Station Casinos’ Last Man Standing NFL completion. Over in the college ranks, the Last Man Standing competition — which comes with a prize of $100,000 — is now over. Only three of the 3,223 entries were alive entering the weekend. How’d they do? Stay tuned…
Bets To Know
UNLV is set to host Boise State for the Mountain West title. The Broncos are a small favorite, but the STN Books expect a flood of Rebels money to pour in via the STN App and at the sports book counters. Vegas locals get root for (or fade!) the hometown team this weekend!
Weekly Winners
$50 1/2 point parlay card turned to $39,950 for this STN Sports bettor!
-OKLAHOMA -10.5
-MIZZOU -7.5
-TULANE -3.5
-KANSAS -6.5
-KENTUCKY +7.5
-CLEMSON 7.5
-N’WESTERN +5.5
-JAGUARS -1.5
-TEXANS UN 48.5
-BRONCOS -2.5