After weeks and weeks of the House getting the better of guests on Sundays, the public got its revenge this past weekend. Favorites were on fire, going 12-3 straight up and 11-4 against the spread Week 5.
“The early games on Sunday were probably the best slate of games for the guests so far through the first five weeks. Guests were having a really good stretch,” said Chuck Esposito, Station Casinos Race and Sports Book Director.
With all that in mind, let’s quickly review the past week in sports and peek at what’s ahead on the STN Sports app and the STN Sports Books…
‘Dog Stats
Although it was a chalky weekend with so many favorites coming through, big underdogs continued to defy the odds. On Sunday, the 49ers and Seahawks entered their home games as touchdown favorites against the Cardinals and Giants, respectively. Both underdogs won outright, saving STN Sports Books from crumbling like the Tropicana.
“That was a dramatic game changer from our side of the counter,” Esposito said. “Those teams winning outright became a teaser, a money line and a parlay card killer.” As luck would have it, San Francisco and Seattle face off on Thursday night, and the Niners are getting some early love from the bettors. On Sunday, though, Seattle was among the most heavily bet teams. About 87% of the tickets in that afternoon game were for the Seahawks.
“They lost that game to Detroit, but they looked good, like they could play with maybe the best team in the NFC,” Esposito noted. “So guests were really high on Seattle. We were clearly Giant fans.” In the end, the Giants won 29-20. Maybe we shouldn’t be surprised, though. So far in 2024, underdogs of 5.5 points or more are now 19-5 against the spread this season.
“The league is just loaded with parity,” the oddsmaker added. “You look at some of the teams that we really expected to be better, and they’re not. It’s just really kind of a head scratch right now.”
Bad Browns
Unsurprisingly, the Carolina Panthers stink worse than a Fremont Street dumpster, but what happened to the Cleveland Browns? On Sunday, the Browns got beatdown by Washington, losing 34-13 and showing fewer signs of life than Area 51. This week, they’re nearly a double-digit underdog at the Philadelphia Eagles.
“Cleveland is probably the biggest disappointment in the entire league,” Esposito said. “I don’t know what they do. They look completely lost to me. You can make cases for the Browns and the Panthers as probably being the two worst teams in each league and two teams to bet against. We need them on a weekly basis.”
Jetting Off
Guests are already buying into the post-Robert Saleh era of the Jets. On Tuesday, the Jets head coach was fired after three-and-a-half years at the helm. Despite the shuffle at the top of the ticket, the public is siding with New York in its Week 6 matchup against Buffalo.
“We wondered what the impact of the firing would be, and people seem to like the Jets,” Esposito said. The Bills began the season hot, and Josh Allen was celebrated like the opening of the new Seventy Six tavern in North Vegas. But, they’ve slipped up a bit and really looked average against the Texans (which came on the heels of getting bludgeoned at Baltimore.) The Station oddsmaker said, “This is a really tough stretch for the Bills, and the guests are remembering how poorly they’ve looked for two weeks.”
Big Upset
Final: Vanderbilt 40 Alabama 35. What. The. Heck. Happened. Last weekend saw one of the biggest upsets of the last decade in college football. Going into that game, the Crimson Tide was a 23-point favorite and looked to coast through the week, but the Commodores pulled off an absolute stunner. “It’s not like Bama loses to Ole Miss or Georgia Tech. I mean, they lose the Vandy after the impressive win the week before and arguably the college game of the year against Georgia,” Esposito said.
At Station Casinos, 86 percent of the ticket count was on Alabama, equating to a huge win for the Book. Oddsmakers wouldn’t even trade Davante Adams for a win like that. Likewise, the Syracuse/UNLV game brought in a monster handle.
“The public really bet UNLV and rode them,” Esposito said of the Rebels, who closed as six-point favorites. “From the fan side of it, we really wanted UNLV to win and not cover, but an outright Syracuse win was a really good scenario for us.”
Hook ‘Em
No matter who’s under center for the Texas Longhorns, bettors are on them. So far this year, Texas has used Quinn Ewers and Arch Manning as its signal caller, and both have been impressive. Going into the game against Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry, they are two-touchdown favorites.
Last year, the Longhorns’ lone regular season loss came at the hands of the Sooners. Still, that game hasn’t moved from its opening line. Elsewhere, fans are siding with Oregon at home as an underdog against Ohio State.
“There has been some early action on Oregon in this game. The numbers come down a bit,” Esposito said. Still, barring a blowout, there shouldn’t be much shifting in the polls.
Last Man Standing
Last Man Standing contestants are getting bounced like a basketball. Only 178 entries remain active in the NFL contests (the week started with 311 people still in the running.) On the college side, 180 entries remain, down from 280 to begin last week.
“Think about the amount of contestants in the pro contest, which was so much more than the college, and yet there are fewer left. I mean, it speaks volumes about the parity,” Esposito said. “Those Seattle and San Francisco losses really dropped the field.”
MLB
Even Ron Burgundy doesn’t like the Padres as much as guests. “The betting public is clearly on the Padres against the Dodgers,” Esposito said. “We have some liability on the Padres to win the World Series, and they just look like a team that’s really confident and think they can beat the Dodgers.”
For what seems like a decade, the Dodgers have been hurting the Books, crushing like a middle school couple. The tables have turned. “I’m really curious to see how the betting public plays the Padres/Dodgers series with the Dodgers being on the road right now,” Esposito said. “Again, the Padres have been a popular bet, and you can just tell the bettors feel like they’re a live dog in that series. It’s hard to believe that we’re actually cheering for the Dodgers.”
Bets To Know
It’s Knight time! Puck dropped this week for the new NHL season, which means the STN Sports menu has expanded even further. Beyond VGK, check the app daily for a huge menu of props, in-play opportunities, and more
Weekly Winners
Hockey is back, and that means winning parlays. This STN Sports bettor tossed some hockey legs into their 6-team parlay, and collected $1,149 off a $20 stake:
-STL Blues moneyline +135
-Panthers/Bruins over 6 goals -120
-Mets/Phillies over 7 runs -105
-Padres/Dodgers over 7.5 runs
-Lynx -4 -110