In what has been a boon for bettors, the same ole song and dance continued in the NFL this past weekend: favorites won.
“Unfortunately, it just has not been a good football season overall for us, but it’s been really good for the other side of the counter,” said Chuck Esposito, Station Casinos Race and Sports Book Director. “We just keep finding new ways to lose on a weekly basis.”
On Monday night alone, the Raiders scored a late touchdown but missed the extra point, which would have covered. Instead, the Falcons covered or pushed, depending on when guests got the line. The Bears, meanwhile, lost handily, but they scored a touchdown in the third quarter, which was called back because a player didn’t report as “eligible.” That touchdown would have added points to Chicago’s total and possibly changed the whole complexion of the game.
With all that in mind, let’s quickly review the past week in sports and peek at what’s ahead on the STN Sports app and the STN Sports Books…
Moneyline Bets
Although they may not be covering the spreads, favorites can’t stop winning outright week in and week out. Can’t stop, won’t stop. This past week, favorites went 12-3 on the moneyline.
“Moneyline and teaser bets have become much more popular for the bettors, especially for favorites of six points or more,” Esposito said. “Moneyline bets on favorites are the most popular bets this year. This is probably the most popular season ever for moneyline bets.”
One STN guest even placed a $90,000 moneyline bet on the Lions, which failed after Buffalo’s Josh Allen decided to play the role of Superman (again.) Of the three underdogs that won outright in Week 15, all three were teams that saw a large amount of action: the Cowboys +2.5, Bills +2, Buccaneers +3.
Had the Saints been able to convert on a last-second two-point conversion and win, the difference in the day would have been more dramatic than a Yellowstone finale. Esposito added,
“It would’ve been a much better outcome for us on Sunday if the Saints won outright. We still won on Sunday but lost that and then a lot more on Monday with all the liability dumping into the Falcons and Vikings.”
Since week 4, moneyline favorites are winning 80% of the time. When it comes to the 2024 NFL season, favorites have a chokehold that would make Jon Jones envious.
Reason for Concern?
While still among the favorites to win the Super Bowl in the future book, the Detroit Lions are no longer THE favorite, and there might be reason for concern as injuries grow like a Raiders loss column.
“I was a huge Lions fan from just how good they are and I still am, but that injury to David Montgomery is catastrophic,” Esposito opined. And because the NFC North has been so good with three teams in the mix with at least 10 wins, the Lions could actually start the playoffs on the road, which seemed unfathomable just a month ago.
“They’re only a tie-breaking game away from not being the No. 1 seed. They were the No. 1 team the entire year and it looked like a foregone conclusion that everything would go through Detroit. They might be a wild card team now, and that really flips the script for me,” said the STN oddsmaker.
The Lions still have to play the 12-2 Vikings again. Sure, they beat Minnesota earlier this year, but they won by just two points. The Lions also have the Bears on the docket, a team that probably should have beaten them twice last year and almost beat them on Thanksgiving.
“If Detroit stubs their toe and isn’t the No. 1 seed and has to play playoff games on the road after the first week, I would make the Eagles the favorite,” Esposito said. “You always want that team that’s playing well, is healthy and has that swagger, and that’s the Eagles now more than the Lions, in my opinion.” Winning despite injuries just isn’t sustainable in the NFL, meaning the Lions might want to ask Santa Claus for some health.
Chiefs QB
Speaking of a guy in a red suit, we present Patrick Mahomes. On Sunday, Mahomes exited the game after an awkward tackle that left him limping, and it was later determined he suffered a high ankle sprain. With a healthy, mobile Mahomes, Kansas City would certainly be a favorite of over a field goal this weekend against the Texans, but questions remain about his availability or effectiveness, leading to Houston being listed as a small favorite.
“That line has been steadily coming down, so maybe he will play now,” Esposito said. There’s no question that #15 under center changes things, but is there a difference between a hurt Mahomes playing vs. a healthy backup? Maybe. Maybe not. “Their offense hasn’t been anything spectacular this year. They’ve been doing it more with their defense,” Esposito said. On the other sideline, the Texans have locked up the AFC South, but CJ Stroud has struggled like a Christmas budget this season.
AFC North Showdown
On Saturday, the Pittsburgh Steelers face the Baltimore Ravens with the division at stake. If Pittsburgh wins, they clinch the AFC North. If Baltimore prevails this weekend, the Steelers would still lead the division, but things get murky.
The Ravens opened as favorites of nearly a touchdown, but is that way too many points? These teams always seem to play close games. Of the last 14 meetings, 13 have ended as one-possession games. Earlier this season, the Steelers won 18-16.
“Even though it’s a much bigger game for the Ravens, I think there’s just too much value there with the Steelers,” Esposito said. “Seven straight meetings have gone under. The last time they played, we were talking about two red hot teams and high scoring, and it was a dead under. If history has taught us anything, these two teams play close, low-scoring games, yet you have a total over 45 and a favorite over six points. Have we not learned from our mistakes?”
Bets To Know
College Football Bowl Season is upon us! We have mid-week and weekend games to look forward to, and a huge betting menu to match. Check the app daily for matchups, including 10% boosts on key Match of The Day clashes.
Weekly Winners