The countdown is officially on until the Big Game kicks off, and STN Sports Books are expecting to see betting action soar higher than egg prices. “At this point, we’re still in the calm of the storm, but the winds are picking up just a bit,” said Chuck Esposito, Station Casinos Race and Sports Book Director.
Thus far, the wagering is on a similar track as it has been for other non-Vegas Super Bowls, and the spread is trending downward as more guests eye the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles, coincidentally, haven’t exactly been the sports betting industry’s best friend in Super Bowls. Over the last 10 Super Bowls, the two lowest wins for Nevada Sports Books involved the Birds. In 2023, the legal win was $4.3 million for 2.8%. In 2018, when Philly beat the Patriots, the Books held onto just over $1.1 million for 0.7%.
“There’s always a lot of Philly money that shows,” Esposito said. “We’re going to be rooting for not only the under, but for the props to stay under. That’s kind of the key.” With all that in mind, let’s quickly review the past week in sports and peek at what’s ahead on the STN Sports app and the STN Sports Books…
Big Total Bets
Although the majority of money wagered on Super Bowls is tied to the teams, the most significant bets at the point are all on the game’s total. STN Sports Books have taken in three $50,000 wagers on the under (two bets were under 49.5 points, and one was under 50 points). In addition, a six-figure bet has come in on over 49 points.
All told, over 80% of the bets are on the over. Meanwhile, 57% of the tickets favor the Kanas City Chiefs. The moneyline betting sits at a very steady 50/50 split. With a razor-thin spread, this is anyone’s game, so either side has a more hopeful future than the Life Is Beautiful festival.
Prop Bets
STN Sports Books released a 32-page packet of prop bets that allows guests to wager on everything from the coin toss to cross-sport options, but bettors seem to have eyes for Saquon Barkley. “There’s a lot of love for Barkley across the board. Everything involving him is very popular,” Esposito said. Bettors can bet on the running back’s rushing yards, rushing attempts, receiving yards, touchdown total and more. Should the Philadelphia Eagles win, you must assume Barkley would be in the mix for MVP. In fact, only Patrick Mahomes has lower MVP odds.
“If the Chiefs win, the MVP figures to be Patrick Mahomes, but with the Eagles, it’s more of a two-headed monster. Both Barkley and Jalen Hurts are getting a lot of love,” the oddsmaker said. Super Bowl LIX features more power than Harry Reid Airport after a copper theft. It should come as little surprise that the Books do better when most prop bets stay under the pre-set line. Traditionally, guests do well if the game includes a safety (which has happened nine times in Super Bowl history,) the game goes to overtime (which has happened twice) or features a successful two-point conversion (there has been 11 in Super Bowl history.)
“Those are the bets we do worst on from our side. We’ll be rooting against those,” Esposito said. “Prop bets have become such a big part of the game. You can have action on almost every play, from the opening kickoff to whether the very last play will be a quarterback kneel down or a scoring play.”
Predictions?
With the spread being tighter than a showgirl’s bustier, Super Bowl LIX is really a coin-toss game. Analytics show the Eagles as a slight favorite, but the industry-wide line favors the Chiefs. “I think you can make a case for both teams, and I’ll be rooting for whoever we need, but it’s awfully tough to go against No. 15 and Andy Reed with the extra time off,” Esposito said when asked for a prediction.
“I’m going to say that Harrison Butker is lining up for a fairly long field goal as time expires, and he drills it. The Chiefs win 24-23 to give Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reed the three-peat, and the game stays under.”
NBA Trades
Of course, the NBA couldn’t let the NFL have all the fun this week. The Association was rocked to its core when Luka Doncic was traded from the Dallas Mavericks to the Los Angeles Lakers for Anthony Davis. In the wake of the trade, the Lakers’ championship odds dropped from 16-to-1 to 9-to-1. The Mavs’ odds shot up to 22-to-1, up from their 15-to-1 pre-trade number.
“The Lakers, although they weren’t great this year, they still are a very popular bet,” Esposito said. “I think it hurts the Lakers up front a bit, but you get a generational type player. In the Mavericks’ case, they still have a really talented team with what they had up front to begin with, and I think they have a window to still get back to the NBA final this year. I really think on the short window that I’m a little bit more in favor of Dallas for the short term, but, of course, long-term, the Lakers are getting a generational type talent in Luca.”
There are even Super Bowl prop bets tied to both Doncic and Davis. With the Lakers-Mavs trade being so large, a monster three-team trade between the Spurs, Bulls and Kings went somewhat under the radar. The Bulls dumped salary, but the Kings got Zach LaVine, and the Spurs are now De’Aaron Fox’s new home.
“It really helps the Spurs a lot,” Esposito said. Like the Stirling Club at Turnberry Place, everything is for sale in the NBA.
Bets To Know
STN Sports Books released a 32-page packet of prop bets that allows guests to wager on everything from the coin toss to cross-sport options. Literally thousands of options await, in the book and on the app.
Weekly Winners
A nice $75 basketball and hockey parlay hits for $2,351 on Monday night – congrats to this bettor:
-Senators +1.5
-Pacers moneyline
-Warriors moneyline
-Jayhawks moneyline
-Knicks/Rockets over 109
-Panthers/Cavaliers under 60.5 1H
-Thunder -14.5
-Grizzlies -2.5