The opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament brought crowds, hype, excitement and a whole lot of betting to the STN Sports Books. What the tournament was largely devoid of: buzzer beaters and Cinderella stories. So far, elementary musicals have had more drama than the tournament, something oddsmakers aren’t loving. Other than McNeese State, no large underdog is winning outright.
“There were so many games where we were covering the majority of the game, but in the last three or four minutes, these small schools didn’t have the horses, and that goes hand in hand with not having that Cinderella,” said Chuck Esposito, Station Casinos Race and Sports Book Director. “We were so close, but for whatever reason, Cinderella turned into a pumpkin before midnight.”
With the exception of just a handful of games, the lower seeds largely won and covered their respective spreads. Esposito added, “Thursday, Friday and Saturday were decent days for our side of the counter, Saturday being the best, but Sunday was way, way too chalky, and we gave a lot of that profit back. Sunday was a losing day for us but the best day for the guests.”
With all that in mind, let’s quickly review the past week in sports and peek at what’s ahead on the STN Sports app and the STN Sports Books…
Bad Beats
Guests were on pins and needles on Sunday when the Maryland/Colorado State game went back and forth, having more swings than a Summerlin playground. The Rams took the late lead with a 3-point shot, and hope dwindled for the Terrapins. Out of timeout, however, Maryland got the ball to freshman sensation Derik Queen, who sunk a fadeaway bucket at the buzzer to lift the Terps to the Sweet 16.
The Sports Books went crazy, and people came off the couch like they were UNLV’s new basketball head coach. Maryland was a 7.5-point favorite, and 57% of tickets took them with the spread, but a huge batch of people added them on the moneyline to parlay tickets. “There were a lot of moneyline bets on all the favorites,” the Station oddsmaker said. “Like what happens with the NFL, we needed a moneyline killer by the time we got to Sunday, and we just didn’t get it.”
The Book was also on the wrong end of a bad beat for the ages on Sunday — again, much to the delight of the guests — when a meaningless UConn 3-pointer at the buzzer against favorite Florida lifted the game over the total of 151. For over 39 of the game’s 40 minutes, the House and under bettors seemed to be coasting to an easy win. However, 18 points were scored in the final minute, 12 of which came in the final 11 seconds, paving the way for a Norm Clarke-esque loss (RIP, old friend.)
“We were rooting for a lot of unders over the course of the first four days, and it was a little bit of catch-22 because there was some teaser money on Florida,” Esposito said. “So getting that 3-pointer helped as far as that goes and killed those teasers, but there was a lot more total money on the game, and that really hurt.”
Lack of Madness
As explained, the tournament so far has seen more chalk than an ‘80s-era classroom. Seven of the eight No. 1 and 2 seeds are in the Sweet 16, so nearly half the remaining teams are the creme de lé creme. Thus far in the upcoming round, money has come in on Duke, Houston and BYU.
“The fact that’s been so chalky, you’ll see a lot of that. Guests are no question going to bet Duke. They’re going to back Florida,” Esposito said. “There are a couple of schools that could see some underdog money. You look at some of these big schools that are not that big of favorites. I think the public will back them as well.”
Last Man Standing Update
The tournament’s first four days knocked out 83.5% of the Last Man Standing entries. Before last Thursday’s tipoff, 3,147 entries vied for the $63,550 prize. After the round of 32 concluded, just 191 entries remained.
Dodgers = Heavy Favorites
Baseball’s Opening Day, one of the single greatest sports days on the calendar, is set for Thursday, but the oddsmakers might already be waving the white flag. The Los Angeles Dodgers enter the season as the biggest World Series favorite in 22 years, with minuscule odds of +175. The Braves and Mets, next on the list, enter the season with World Series odds of +900. Teams not named the Dodgers are about as unwelcome as an Atlantic journalist in a national security chat group (whoops!).
“Just look at the money that they spend compared to so many other teams right now,” Esposito said, adding that there is little liability on the Dodgers due to the price. “Guests are looking for value. They’re looking at the Braves, Yankees, Mets, Orioles. A lot will depend on where these teams stand at the trade deadline and how healthy the Dodgers are.”
Still, there’s money to be made on baseball, and the STN App is locked and loaded for Opening Day with sides, totals, props, and run lines all posted. While the National League appears to be the Dodgers invitational, the American League is open. Seattle and Boston both improved; the Central has three competitive teams, none of which are the White Sox; the West could be a three-team battle.
“After the Dodgers, you can probably go about eight deep with teams that I think realistically are going to be good and could make a run this year,” Esposito said.
USC Injury
The USC Women’s team entered the tournament as a No. 1 seed and one of the favorites to cut down the nets, but their dreams took a massive hit on Monday after guard JuJu Watkins went down with a season-ending ACL tear. The Lady Trojans came into last week with +550 national title odds, but post-injury, the odds now sit nearly five times higher.
“That’s a big, big loss for USC. You’re talking about one of the best players in the country,” Esposito said. “It’s going to alter their lines dramatically.” It already has.
Bets To Know
It’s not just the men’s college hoops action that’s heating up – STN Sports has odds on all the women’s matchups too. Check the app for matchups and props as the field narrows down.
Weekly Winners
One STN Sports bettor pocketed a cool $16,000 after betting $20 on a 10-team parlay. The guest’s ticket featured college basketball games last Thursday:
-Houston -28
-Alabama State +32
-St. John’s -19
-Purdue -8
-Creighton +3
-Gonzaga -7
-Drake +6
-UCLA -5
-Texas A&M -8
-Michigan -2.