Duke, Florida Spreads Expected To Rise Before Final Four

For just the second time in the history of the NCAA Tournament, all four No. 1 seeds advanced to the Final Four. The result of all of the favorites racking up victories, of course, is good news for guests and bad news for the bookmakers.

“This is back-to-back years now that the overall atmosphere, handle, hype of the tournament has been tremendous, but not great from our side of the counter,” said Chuck Esposito, Station Casinos Race and Sports Book Director. “This year was maybe a little bit better than last year, but it’s very, very chalky. We’re so used to these dramatic Cinderella stories and the David against Goliath matchups.”

What we’re left with is Duke, Houston, Florida and Auburn. With all that in mind, let’s quickly review the past week in sports and peek at what’s ahead on the STN Sports app and the STN Sports Books…

The Moneyline Parlay

STN’s Sports Books watched the same movie over and over and over again last week, as a throng of guests continued to parlay Auburn, Florida and Duke on the moneyline. “We saw it with the NFL, but parlaying favorites on the moneyline has become kind of the new darling of the bettors,” Esposito said. “We continually looked for a big moneyline underdog to cover, especially after the first weekend, and just didn’t get it. We had our chances, I thought, with Texas Tech and Ole Miss, but they just couldn’t get it done.”

Favorites went 12-0 in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8. On Saturday and Sunday, those same favorites went 3-1 against the spread, meaning they were more on fire than some of those vandalized Teslas. Still, the Books caught a break (and guests suffered a brutal bad beat) on Friday night at the end of the Michigan State/Ole Miss game when the Rebels sank a meaningless 3-pointer at the buzzer to lose 73-70 and cover the 3.5-point line.

“It was one of the ugliest 3’s I’ve ever seen with the way it kind of hit the back of the rim and the backboard and fell in. It definitely saved us a lot because we got the ‘dog to cover, but just couldn’t get that outright ‘dog favorite to win on that game,” Esposito said.

Florida vs. Auburn

The SEC, the best conference in college basketball in the past season, will be well-represented in the Final Four as Florida and Auburn clash. The Gators opened as one-possession favorites, and the number will likely go up as Florida money is expected.

“I think Auburn was the best team in the country early in the season. Down the stretch, they didn’t play well, but they have responded and played well,” said Esposito. “Florida has just been kind of on a mission all year long. I think it’s a real coin toss of a game.” Regarding the college game, even Star Nursery couldn’t change the landscape like the SEC did in 2024-2025.

Houston vs. Duke

Houston must be the best version of itself to beat Duke. It’s just that simple. “I think that we’re probably going to need Houston in the game against Duke just because they go on offensive lapses. They’re not going to be able to survive a drought like that against Duke,” Esposito said.

“Although they’re so good defensively, and as we’ve seen, if they get a lead, they just suffocate you. They just shorten the game to the point where it is really tough to come back, but they have to have that lead against Duke, which is really tough.” The Blue Devils opened as two-possession favorites, and the number is expected to go up faster than a Durango Resort parking garage.

Last Man Standing Update

Going into the Final Four, just five Last Man Standing entries remain, down from the 191 that began last weekend. A $63,550 prize will go to the winner of the STN contest, which began with 3,147 entries.

“It’ll be really interesting with four No. 1’s left to see what their selections are from the last five,” Esposito said. “I thought because it was so chalky that you’d see more left. It wouldn’t have surprised me if there would’ve been 25 left.” 

NBA Good v Bad

The NBA is coming down to its final stretch of the regular season, and the calendar is still loaded with games between teams fighting for playoff position and teams fighting for the worst record in the league (to better their odds of landing Cooper Flagg in the NBA draft).

So, how does the STN Sports Book make lines for games involving teams deliberating trying to go in different directions?

“It makes it really hard from our side and from the guest side,” Esposito said. “We’re adjusting games so much faster, maybe limiting some of the games, taking them off for a period of time.”

Bottom-dwelling teams like the Wizards, Jazz and Hornets are more of a joke than an April 1 quip. When these teams are playing a contender, the spread are often huge, but 85-90% of the tickets bet are still on the competition. “We try to make the number big enough that maybe they’re not going to bet it because anything can still happen,” Esposito said. “It’s up to us to adjust accordingly.”

Bets To Know

With baseball heating up, and homerun storylines trending (looking at you and your bats, Yankees!), take a look at the exploded prop menu for MLB games. If you bet last year, you’ll be surprised at the total overhaul of the menu.

Weekly Winners