NFL underdogs gave STN Sports Books Christmas presents in the form of against-the-spread covers or outright wins on Dec. 25, and the gift-giving continued on Sunday, as the Browns beat the Steelers (the latter garnering 86% of the ticket count), the Saints bested the Titans, and the Dolphins laid waste to the struggling Buccaneers, all results which had bookies popping champagne like a New Year’s Eve reveler.
“The biggest thing of the day was the underdog Eagles beating the Bills,” said Chuck Esposito, Station Casinos Sports Book Director. “There was a little bit of an early push on the Eagles plus the points, but leading up to kickoff, money was just pouring in on the Bills. So getting the Eagles to cover that game was perfect.”
With all that in mind, let’s quickly review the past week in sports and peek at what’s ahead on the STN Sports App and the STN Sports Books…
Week 18
In so many ways, Week 18 of the NFL season is like the preseason, as teams often yank their starters to rest up for the playoffs or because the game is meaningless, making things more murky than Pete Carroll’s job security.
There are still some massive games, two of which will take place on Saturday: Carolina at Tampa Bay and Seattle at San Francisco. If the Niners (who are a small ‘dog at home) win, they would earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC and wouldn’t have to leave the Bay Area for the season, as the Super Bowl is in Levi’s Stadium.
On Sunday, the Ravens will play the Steelers for the AFC North crown and the No. 4 slot in the AFC. Baltimore, which was more dead than a Venetian showroom two weeks ago, enters the game as a road favorite of over a field goal. But there is some uncertainty about Lamar Jackson’s availability in that game.
“That number is telling you that the expectation is that Lamar will play in that game,” Esposito said. “We know the Steelers will be without DK Metcalf and if TJ Watt plays, he’ll be less than 100%. On the Ravens side, if Tyler Huntley ends up as quarterback, my guess is that game’s closer to pick ‘em.” That said, Esposito thinks there’s value on Pittsburgh getting more than a field goal at home.
“These two teams have played so many really close games over the last five or six years, and the majority of the games have been decided by four points or less. So I think there’s some value there.” Of the other games that only matter for draft positioning, Esposito believes the Cowboys and Bengals will want to end the season on high notes, too.
How The Cards Fall
The last week of this season will only have a smattering of games that have real playoff consequences, meaning guests have to do their research. In theory, the Rams should manhandle the Cardinals, BUT what if they rest their starters as Sean McVay has been known to do? The Packers have been far superior to the Vikings this season, BUT are they even going to try, knowing they are locked into the No. 7 seed in the NFC? Similarly, the Eagles almost have nothing to play for against Washington.
“I don’t know what the Eagles’ psyche will be with a little bit older team. What’s the Rams’ psyche will be with a little bit older team? So it does make it really hard to bet,” Esposito said. Just like you have to do in the preseason, see what information is out there about starting lineups to make informed bets.
Liability Concerns
The Broncos clinched a playoff berth weeks ago, and the Bears are invited into the playoff party, as well. If those two teams were to face off in the Super Bowl, that would be a worst-case scenario for the STN Sports Books, as those two teams present the highest liability, based on future book bets. The 49ers also present some liability. All three of them would be a ho-ho-horrible outcome for STN Books.
“We don’t know who’s going to be the No. 1 seed in each conference, but you can make a case that the Patriots, even if they’re seeded No. 1, get the bye in the first round of the playoffs and be an underdog in quarterfinals,” Esposito said. “If they’re the No. 2 seed and they play in the first round of the playoffs, you can make a case that they’re still going to be a ‘dog in the first round of the playoffs, which is kind of crazy.
Think about the Bears, if they have to play, say, the Rams, or conceivably the Packers in the first round of the playoffs, they might be a ‘dog at home. If the Patriots have to play, say the Chargers or the Bills, I think there’s a good chance that they’re a ‘dog as well.”
Bets To Know
The lines for the college football playoff games have largely settled into place, but STN expects a flurry of activity in the hours before kickoff. A lot of eyes are on the Cotton Bowl, where Ohio State takes on Miami on New Year’s Eve. “Ohio State’s the biggest favorite on the board and might ultimately get pushed to double digits, but I’ve heard a lot of people say that they give Miami a puncher’s chance in this,” Esposito revealed.
Weekly Winners
We can’t stop thinking about this past Sunday’s Bears / 49ers game, and neither can this bettor, who hit a nice $20 Anytime TD parlay to collect $520:
-Jake Tonges Anytime TD
-Juaun Jennings Anytime TD
-DeAndre Swift Anytime TD
-Christian McCaffrey Anytime TD