STN Sports Books were counting their “Bills” on Saturday after two games went their way. Not only did the Bills/Broncos game go for the Books, with Denver’s 33-30 win, but the evening game on Saturday was even more fruitful than Gilcrease Orchard. “Although the initial push was on the Seahawks, there was a huge late push on the 49ers,” said Chuck Esposito, Station Casinos Sports Book Director. “There was an abundance of money on the Niners, just non-believers in the Seahawks, and the outcomes on Saturday ended up being arguably our best pro football playoffs day this year.” The following day was more of a mixed bag, as guests backed the Patriots and Rams in their games. In the early game, New England cruised to an easy three-point cover, winning 28-16. In the later game, the Rams looked poised to win and cover the four-point line in the dwindling seconds, but then, like the Mount Charleston Lodge,Chicago rose from the ashes and tied the game on a miraculous play by Caleb Williams and Cole Kmet. In the end, Los Angeles notched the overtime win, but not the cover, with a 20-17 victory. “We had a lot of liability going into the second game, and the Ice Man making that passwith 18 seconds to go saved our you–know–what,” Esposito said. “Getting the Bears to lose by just three was pivotal. So, we still had just a small winning day that day, but we would have given a big, big chunk back had the Rams covered.” With all that in mind, let’s quickly review the past week in sports and peek at what’s ahead on the STN Sports App and the STN Sports Books…
AFC Conference Championship
For the first time in 11 years, a home team in the NFL Conference Championships is an underdog, and that team is the Denver Broncos. Denver, the No. 1 seed in the AFC, will be without its Pro Bowl quarterback, Bo Nix, who broke his ankle in the divisional playoff round, leaving former Raiders backup Jarrett Stidham at the helm. Had Nix been able to play, Denver would have been a small favorite, but the injury shifts things by about a full touchdown. Make no mistake: Stidham is a veteran, having been in the league for 6 years. However, he’s only participated in 20 games (mainly in relief appearances) and hasn’t taken a snap all season. On the other side of the ball, Denver’s defense is elite and can keep them in games. “They’ve got agreat defense, they’ve got the altitude there, they’re 8-1 at home, they have Sean Payton andthey really have to kind of rally the troops. Denver is not going to lay an egg,” Esposito said, noting that early money is on Denver and the over. Plus, because of the timing of Nix’s injury, Stidham gets a whole week to take first-team reps, which will help. The Patriots, on the other hand, will be led by MVP candidate Drake Maye. The Pats are certainly one of the surprise teams of the season, as few expected much of them this year. But do we actually know if the team has more holes than the Boring Company? “The Patriots had one of the easiest schedules in the history of the league, so that’s a little suspect,” Esposito said. “That’s not to take anything away from them, because you play who’s in front of you, but now the script has flipped a little bit. They’re now the role of the favorite, and what is that psyche like? How do they perform with that? So a little bit different for them. But they have a really good defense, too. The million-dollar question is, what does Jarrett Stidham have?”
NFC Conference Championship
The third act of the Rams/Seahawks trilogy has more at stake than ever. Seattle, who will be at home with the backing of the 12th Man, enters the game as field goal favorites. Because they earned the No. 1 seed, Seattle was awarded a first-week bye. They then played a very, very depleted 49ers team last week and hardly broke a sweat, beating San Francisco 41-6. It’s as if they had a bye and a half and are fresher than a salmon at Seventy Six Tavern. The Rams, meanwhile, had to go on the road to face a gutsy Carolina squad and a second-seeded Bears team in single-digit temperatures. Their bodies have taken more shots than a bachelor party. “The Rams are way more the public team,” Esposito said. “You have to remember that the Rams haven’t been great down the stretch. They haven’t been quite the dominant team that they were, and you are asking them to win their third straight road game to get to the Super Bowl in arguably one of the toughest places to play in the league.” Unlike the Rams/Chicago game, weather shouldn’t be a factor in this one, as the total has started to slowly creep up. “There’s one team left that has a Super Bowl-winning coach and a Super Bowl-winning quarterback, and that’s the Rams with Sean McVay and Matt Stafford. The other team has Sam Darnold. We saw him not play great toward the end of the last season and in the playoffs,and he’s had some struggles this year. He had some struggles against the Rams earlier, and he’s got that oblique injury,” Esposito opined. “If push comes to shove and it’s a close game,is Sam Darnold that guy? I’m not saying he’s not, but I think when you decide to make a bet on that game, do you want Sam Darnold or do you want Matt Stafford?”
NCAA
The Indiana Hoosiers became the College Football National Champs on Monday night, besting Miami 27-21. The fact that Indiana didn’t cover the 7.5-point line proved to be profitable for the Books, although staying under 46 1/2 would have had oddsmakers in Greenland. “Getting it to fall between one and seven points was kind of the desired outcome for us,” Esposito said. “It seems that it’s just always hard to keep these big games under.” Having opened the season with 100-to-1 odds to win the title, you could argue that little was thought of Indiana early on, as only a couple small bets were placed. Miami, which had title odds of 175–to-1 in early December, actually presented more liability to the Books. On Dec. 2, three guests put money on the Hurricanes at those astronomical odds, with bets of $5, $18 and $150 — just those three bets would have constituted a $30,000 payout. “We were in a situation where we were in much better shape with Indiana on the future book to win the college football national championship, where we made money on them. We did not on Miami,” Esposito said. On Monday, the Books saw several $50,000 bets on Indiana -7.5, which failed to cover. In all, 68% of the bets were on the Hoosiers -7.5. The game capped off a Hoosiers season that was much more magical than a canceled Penn & Teller show.
VGK Trade
Stop us if you’ve heard this before: The Vegas Golden Knights made a trade. The VGK saw their Stanley Cup odds drop after striking a deal with Calgary and acquiring defenseman Rasmus Andersson, the top defenseman on the market. “I think it helps them a lot. He’s a really good two-way defenseman. It seems like every year they go big-name hunting, and they didn’t disappoint again,” Esposito said. “Every year, this is a team we’re going to have toreckon with as long as they’re relevant. They made the move that they had to make, and I think as they continue to get healthier and play well the second half of the season, that from the business side of it, we’re going to be rooting against them.” Due to the trade, the VGK are now tied with the Tampa Bay Lightning for having the second-lowest Stanley Cup odds. With the defensive upgrade, VGK opponents might get handcuffed more than an unruly crowd on the Las Vegas Strip.
STN Sports
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