The STN Sports Books got bit by the ‘dog on Wild Card Weekend of the NFL Playoffs, due to wins by the Bears, Bills and 49ers.
“There was a lot of money on all three, and all three are very, very public teams. All three point spreads were low, so getting them to win outright was really good for the other side of the counter,” said Chuck Esposito, Station Casinos Sports Book Director. “The best case for us would have been the favorites win but not cover.”
After all was said and done, it was a small winning weekend for the house. However, one guest got a real San Francisco treat when the 49ers beat the Eagles, completing a high-paying two-team underdog parlay (which also included the Bills on the moneyline). The Durango Casino guest made a $21,000 bet, which cashed for over $116,000.
With all that in mind, let’s quickly review the past week in sports and peek at what’s ahead on the STN Sports App and the STN Sports Books…
Buffalo v Denver
Last Sunday, the Buffalo Bills ousted arguably the hottest team in the league in the form of the Jacksonville Jaguars, and their reward is traveling to 5,280 feet to face the No. 1-seeded Denver Broncos. At that altitude, the Bills will want more Oxygen than a midday housewife flipping through cable channels.
“You could have gone back and forth as to who the favorite was going to be,” Esposito said, adding that the early money is on Denver. “The Broncos have a really good defense, but I think from a value perspective, and before the playoffs started, when you saw the Bills at 10-or 12-to-1 odds, that’s the team I thought had the most value in the AFC if they could get by the Jags. If that were to happen, they were going to be close to a pick ‘em game in the next game and maybe even the championship game.” The current spread: It’s a coin flip.
San Francisco v Seattle
Honestly, is there a more resilient team than the 49ers? With so many injuries, the team is being held together by super glue and duct tape, and can now add Pro Bowler George Kittle to its medical ward, as he was injured in San Francisco’s 23-19 win in Philly. However, that win sets up a rematch of a game that took place just two weeks ago, with the 49ers traveling to the Emerald City as underdogs of more than a touchdown.
In Week 18, Seattle won 13-3, giving them the No. 1 seed. “This is a well-rested Seahawks team. They’ve got the 12th man, and the Seahawks have a great defense, maybe the best in the NFC. And, they should have beaten the Niners a few weeks ago by a lot more,” Esposito said.
But, these teams know each other really well and traditionally play close games, so is the line skewed too heavily toward Seattle? “Sam Darnold has to show me that he can win a game like this,” said Esposito. “Kyle Shanahan is so good, and he’ll make adjustments. If the 49ers win, they might be really spent going into the championship game.” With so many different starting lineups this season, the Niners have been renovated more than Sunset Station’s Gaudi Bar.
Houston v New England
After an opening line of 2.5-points, the spread in the Houston/New England game immediately jumped up. “The Texans are really impressive with the way they played defense,” Esposito said after Houston erased Pittsburgh — and Mike Tomlin’s job — in a 30-6 win on Monday.
Yes, Pittsburgh’s offense was less effective than a NDOT supervisor, but a large part of that was due to Houston’s defensive front. “We saw some guests interested in betting the Texans when they were 0-3 earlier in the season. I understand why now. Their defense is really, really good,” the STN oddsmaker said.
Whereas the Texans defense was suffocating on Monday, their offense didn’t hold up its end of the bargain, with quarterback CJ Stroud giving the ball away three times, keeping Pittsburgh in the game (Despite the final score, the Steelers were only down by one point in the 4th Quarter.) “CJ Stroud cannot make those mistakes in New England on Sunday if they expect to win,” Esposito said.
There’s also a very high likelihood that Houston will be without leading wide receiver Nico Collins, who left Monday’s game with a concussion. “If they’re without him, it’s going to be a tough task for the Texans,” Esposito said.
L.A. v Chicago
It’s somewhat of a rarity for the No. 2 seed to be an underdog at home, but that’s exactly what we have in the Divisional Round nightcap. The Los Angeles Rams travel to Chicago to face the Bears in what is set to be one of the coldest NFL games on record. While the Rams were 6-4 on the road this year, many believe they still have the most talented team in the NFL, and they have a veteran QB who won’t be phased by the big moment.
“If the Rams weren’t a wild card team, they clearly would have the lowest odds, and they’d be the favorite to win the Super Bowl,” Esposito said. Still, Chicago beat L.A. last season, and the Bears are 7-2 at home this season, although one loss was in Week 18 in a quasi-meaningless game.
The paths to this game were similar in the sense that the Rams and Bears had to come from behind in the final two minutes of their Wildcard Round games to win. That, however, is a common thread for Chicago, as they’d have seven come-from-behind wins this season. No matter the score, the Bears are alive and kicking more than a pair of boots on the Moonshine Flats dance floor.
“The Bears’ achilles heal has clearly been their defense. They have a hard time on that side of the ball. But the Rams, although it’s really good pass rush and they’re great up front, they’re playing with their fourth and fifth corners, so they can be exposed a little bit on the edges,” Esposito said. Largely due to the weather and the expected wind, the total has come down a few points from its opening line. The Bears have also gotten the early money, causing the line to drop.
Still, the Rams are road favorites of over a field goal in a game expected to draw the largest handle of the NFL weekend. “I think the number will get pushed back up, but I could be wrong. The weather’s a factor, and I think Chicago can be really loose. No one expected them to be in this spot,” Esposito said. “Caleb Williams has been really good. Ben Johnson, the team seems to rally around him, but for me, I think the Rams are the best team in the league.”
The Natty
The Indiana Hoosiers have been dominating teams for the better part of this season, including a resounding 56-22 win over Oregon in the Peach Bowl, and they are now one win away from completing one of the biggest turnarounds in college football history. Miami stands in the way… and, by the way, the game is played in the Hurricanes’ home stadium. Still, that hasn’t stopped guests from betting heavily on Indiana, and they could close as two-possession favorites.
“It just seems like an outrageously big number to me, but I know they’ve been mighty impressive,” Esposito said. “The opening push was on Indiana, but Miami is playing in their home stadium.” Having said that, the Hoosiers’ fanbase has traveled incredibly well, as evidenced by them taking over the Rose Bowl and Peach Bowl, outnumbering opposing fans by an estimated five-to-one. Could they essentially take away Miami’s home-field advantage, kinda like what almost every visiting team does at Allegiant Stadium? “I think Miami is the best defensive team that the Hoosiers have faced,” Esposito opined.
“There’s a lot of pressure on Indiana now, and the number just seems big. I think we’re going to see some Miami money show as this number continues to go up. I think it’s a bit inflated.”
Bets To Know
Is it too early to talk Big Game? Looking ahead, the team is already starting to put together props and betting markets for the big one in February. Check the app now and in the coming days as the playoff picture unfolds.
Weekly Winners
$5 to win $4,000! Not a bad mobile parlay card hit for this STN Sports bettor this past Monday:
-Red Wings over Hurricanes
-Canadiens over Canucks
-Jazz over Cavs
-Clippers over Hornets
-Panthers over Sabres
-76ers over Raptors
-Leafs over Avalanche
-Lightning over Flyers
-Steelers/Texans under
-Stars over Kings