The final week of the NFL regular season featured a multitude of meaningless games, aside from draft order. “You saw crazy line moves early in the week, but then it quieted down a little bit,” said Chuck Esposito, Station Casinos Sports Book Director. “But by Sunday morning, I mean, numbers were moving all over the board with more information coming out there.” Then it all came down to the Ravens/Steelers game, which Pittsburgh won 26-24 in a nailbiter, having entered the home game as a three-point underdog.
“You saw a huge early push on the Ravens, and there was a little bit of money that came in on the Steelers,” the oddsmakers said. “By the time the game kicked off, we were Raven fans. So we actually needed the Ravens that night. But, we were happy to survive the day just because there was so much uncertainty.”
One guest more than survived, as a meager $10 bet cashed for $3,368.52, the Steelers capping off the nine-team parlay. With all that in mind, let’s quickly review the past week in sports and peek at what’s ahead on the STN Sports App and the STN Sports Books…
Wild Card Weekend
The NFL Playoffs begin on Saturday afternoon with the Rams headed to Carolina. Despite the Panthers having beaten the Rams earlier this year, Los Angeles is a double-digit favorite, by far the largest of Wild Card Weekend. The Rams were a two-point conversion stop away from possibly being the No. 1 seed in the playoffs, whereas the Panthers are the only playoff team with a losing record. This might be more of a mismatch than the Pete Carroll-Raiders marriage.
“The Rams have the coach and the quarterback. They’ve got the defense and Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, but they didn’t play great down the stretch,” Esposito said. “I equate them to the NBA and the Jordan-era Bulls a little bit. After they had that one year where they set the record, that wasn’t the most important thing to them.
It was just being healthy and getting into the postseason, and we’ll let our talent speak, and I think a little bit of that with the Rams.” It’s possible Los Angeles may have ‘em right where they want ‘em.
Packers/Bears
The oldest rivalry in the NFL will add another chapter this weekend when the Packers take on the Bears. While Chicago is the higher seed with home-field advantage, the early money is coming in on Green Bay. In the regular season, these two played two incredible games, each winning one.
“It’s a really hard game to handicap. These two teams know each other really well,” Esposito said. “It’s still tough for a young Bears team to win, but they are at home. I think it’s going to draw a huge handle.” It’s worth noting that Ben Johnson said he looked forward to beating Matt LaFleur and the Packers “twice a year.” He’ll have his chance, or he could end up with egg on his face.
Buffalo’s Shot?
With the Chiefs, Bengals and Ravens out of the playoffs, many believe that this is Buffalo’s best chance to win it all. But they have to first get by a Jacksonville team tougher than a negotiation with a Pawn Star. “If they get by this game against the Jags, their road is fairly advantageous to them, based on preseason odds,” Esposito said of the Bills, who enter Sunday’s game as slim favorites.
“It’s unfamiliar territory to have to win all the games on the road, but maybe that’s what they do. Maybe there was a lot of pressure on winning a game in Buffalo to get to the Super Bowl. Their kryptonite is no longer in the postseason in Patrick Mahomes. If the Bills get by the Jags, I think there’s some value on the Bills.”
Defending Champs
There may not be a more talented roster in the NFL than the Eagles. The defending champs sit as the NFC’s No. 3 seed, but they may be the most dangerous team out there, and many bettors agree, as the line has moved up, tied to early Philly money coming in prior to Saturday’s game against the 49ers. The Eagles might have more firepower than a Venezuela-bound military force.
“The Eagles are maybe a quasi-sleeping giant. They kind of went through the motions a little bit toward the end of the season. They seemed to be dysfunctional at times between the offense and Jalen Hurts and AJ Brown. Saquon Barkley didn’t have a great year, but if they were playing in February in Santa Clara, would it stun me? Absolutely not,” Esposito said.
“Then you look at the Niners, and they were one win away from sleeping in their own beds, playing every game at home, hopefully getting a little healthier in the postseason, and then let that slip away. So what’s their kind of psyche like?”
Patriots
New England wasn’t supposed to be this good so soon after Tom Brady departed, yet here they are with a 14-3 record and the No. 2 seed. Still, there is an ideology that New England isn’t as impressive as the record suggests (hell, this team lost to the Raiders at home!).
Yes, the Patriots have a great coach, good defense and an emerging star quarterback, but they only beat one team with a winning record in a schedule softer than a pillow top mattress.
On Sunday, they enter the game against the No. 7-seeded Chargers as favorites of over a field goal, and they’re catching L.A. at a good time. “The Chargers are very banged up on both sides of the ball,” Esposito said.
Steelers
Wait, the Steelers, who host the Texans on Monday night, are a home underdog of a field goal again? Have we not learned our lesson (see above)? Pittsburgh, one could argue, is the worst of the seven teams in the AFC playoffs and has to now play one of the best defenses in the entire league. Against Houston’s defense, teams are getting denied more than the Las Vegas Athletics at the trademark office. Then again, the Steelers have DK Metcalf back at wide receiver after serving a two-game suspension.
“You’ve got a decided advantage with Metcalf coming back, and you’re at home, and it’s Mike Tomlin. I think those are all huge factors against a very young Texans team,” Esposito said. “Now, the Texans are far superior to, I think, what the Ravens were defensively, but that’s not the case offensively. That’s the game that I could see easily decided by a field goal one way or another.”
He adds, “If there’s a game that maybe screams under, maybe it’s Steelers/Texans.” For what it’s worth, Pittsburgh hasn’t won a playoff game since 2016, but they also haven’t lost a Monday night game at home since 1991.
College Football Playoffs
With college football’s final four set, all the early money is on the two underdogs, Ole Miss and Oregon. “I think everyone initially was a little enamored with Miami after the win against Ohio State, but Ohio State just didn’t play a good game in that game,” Esposito said. “Ole Miss, they exercised some of those demons against Georgia. They’re definitely a team that has that kind of chip on their shoulder, and a lot of times that has carried teams. I really think it’s that kind of circle-the-wagons mentality, like, ‘Hey, it’s us against the world, but we’re okay with that.’”
On Friday, Indiana will take on Oregon in a game that will likely feature the top two picks in the upcoming draft (Fernando Mendoza and Dante Moore). On the offensive side, these teams have more toys than a CES convention.
In their first meeting this year, the Hoosiers stunned the Ducks in Eugene, winning 30-20. “If you’re Indiana, you went into Oregon as a decided ‘dog, and nobody believed in you. Now you’re the favorite against the team that was one of the favorites before the season started, so the pressure now has totally flipped,” Esposito said.
“If you’re Oregon, the bulletin board material is: ‘Nobody expects us to win this game. We’re the underdog in this game. They’re undefeated. It’s the Heisman Trophy winner.’ They’re relishing that role. I think there’s a lot more pressure on Indiana in this game.”
Bets To Know
We’re cherishing the last couple weeks of college football with a massive menu of props and betting options. Lots of value to be had – check the app for the remainder of this stretch of the college football season.
Weekly Winners
$14 to $5,486… what an insane hockey parlay this bettor hit on Monday night:
-Senators / Red Wings over 1.5 1st Period Goals
-Rangers / Mammoth 0-0 1st Period Correct Score
-Flames / Kraken 1-0 1st Period Correct Score
-Capitals / Ducks 2-1 1st Period Correct Score