As the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament whittled itself down, Cinderella stories and underdogs were getting flattened like a burger from With Love, Always. With just 16 teams left, exactly zero of them are mid-major squads; all 16 remaining teams are from power conferences.
“The first day of the tournament was actually a decent day for us, because we got some ‘dogs to cover,” said Chuck Esposito, Station Casinos Sports Book Director. Guest pocketbooks took a beating when Sienna covered against Duke as a 28.5-point underdog and when TCU beat Ohio State outright, but the Book was celebrating like it got free Chipotle guacamole. However, the tide turned in the guests’ favor after that.
“There was more parity, definitely, on Thursday than we saw on Friday and Saturday. Overall, the tournament was still really, really chalky, especially more on Friday and Saturday, but overall, it was better than it was last year for the first four days,” Esposito said.
“We seemed to need one big ‘dog every night to kind of bail us out, and getting Florida to go down on Sunday kind of saved us.” With all that in mind, let’s quickly review the past week in sports and peek at what’s ahead on the STN Sports App and the STN Sports Books…
The Tourney Continues
This ain’t your daddy’s tournament anymore — one in which mid-majors make noise and make a run. Those days are possibly over. Going into Sunday, favorites of more than four points were 73-10 straight up and 50-33 against the spread since the start of last year. In addition, teams seeded 1, 2, 3 or 4 facing a 5-seed or higher were 57-5 straight up and 37-23 against the spread. Over the last two years, favorites of 8 points or more were 45-1.
“It just kind of screams volumes that the tournament as a whole, even with the adjustments that we’ve made with more double-digit favorites, that it’s just not the same tournament that it was five or 10 years ago. There’s a little bit of Cinderella, but not a whole lot,” Esposito said. If you’re waiting for a Cinderella, your wait is longer than the TSA line at the airport. The rest of this year’s tournament from her on out, though, is expected to be much more competitive, based on the single-digit spreads.
Betting Trends
Although the tournament, as a whole, has lacked Oscar-worthy drama, that hasn’t stopped the betting! As soon as spreads were posted for the Sweet Sixteen games, guests and sharps sought out more of an edge than a flat earther. Houston, which takes on Illinois, saw early action, as did Iowa as a small underdog. Alabama, the largest ‘dog on the board, also got some love.
“By the time these games tip off, I think we’ll really need Alabama, and I think we’ll probably be big-time Arkansas fans,” Esposito said, noting oddsmakers may be playing with fire there, as the STN Sports books have liability on the Razorbacks. “I know there was a lot of buzz and hype about Illinois all year. If the early money is any indication, I think we’re going to need Illinois as well.”
From a liability standpoint, St. Johns and Purdue (in addition to Arkansas) would be trouble for oddsmakers.
After the first four days of the tournament, just 14% of the Last Man Standing entries remain. Before last Thursday’s tip-off, 2,737 entries vied for the $55,200 aggregated prize. Entering this week’s Sweet Sixteen, just 191 entries remain, meaning they’re getting axed faster than this season’s Bachelorette.
MLB Incoming
After a long winter and way-too-short spring, Major League Baseball is back! Amid the men’s and women’s tournaments and The Masters on the horizon, STN Sports Books is juggling multiple balls, including MLB Opening Day. While the Dodgers are once again World Series favorites, there’s money to be had with some under-the-radar, smaller-market teams in the National League Central. Esposito likes the Pirates and Reds to make some noise this season.
“I like a lot of their young talent, and I really like their young pitchers,” he said of Pittsburgh. “It’s hard on a small market team without the revenue or payroll, but I think the Pirates are going to be sneaky good. I think the Reds could be as well. I look for Milwaukee to maybe take a step back, and I still think the Cubs might be the best team in that division, but I think Pittsburgh and Cincinnati will be better.
In the American League, I look for the White Sox to not be as bad as they have been.” But when it comes to baseball, soak it in like the Vegas sun, because a lockout is almost guaranteed next offseason.
Bets to Know
With the start of baseball comes an expanded menu of options on STN Sports. Take a look at the app daily for opportunities to get into the game, including boosted odds for our Match of the Day.
Weekly Winners
What a HIT on the ice! Congrats to this STN Sports hockey bettor: $10 to win $12,763!
-Bruins +1.5 -245
-Sabres -1.5 +200
-Canadiens -1.5 +200
-Senators -1.5 -115
-Predators +1.5 -230
-Wild +1.5 -245
-Flyers +1.5 -255
-Blue Jackets -1.5 +140
-Lightning -1.5 +180