The madness is here, and the STN Sports Books are ready for the influx of wagers. “The Super Bowl is still No. 1, but the college basketball tournament as a whole has definitely narrowed the gap and is clearly No. 2 as far as handle, hype, atmosphere, and just the crowds in the Book,” said Chuck Esposito, Station Casinos Sports Book Director.
As soon as the bracket and regions were set on Sunday, guests, especially professional bettors, scoured the STN Sports Book odds, trying to find value. “The East and the South are both really tough regions. The West is an offensive bracket, but I think it’s also an easier region for Arizona. I think Arizona kind of got the best draw of the four number ones, in my opinion,” Esposito said.
With all that in mind, let’s quickly review the past week in sports and peek at what’s ahead on the STN Sports App and the STN Sports Books…
The Madness Begins!
A ton of the first-round games have spreads higher than the price of a drink on Las Vegas Boulevard. Nineteen games have double-digit spreads, and nine of them are over 20 points (Arizona is favored by more than 30 points!).
“The tournament’s been very chalky and favorite-laden over the last few years, so there’s been a major adjustment in point spreads across the board. I don’t remember ever, over the last five to 10 years, seeing nearly as many double-digit favorites.” Esposito said.
“We saw a little bit more parity in the conference tournaments, but you’re seeing a huge adjustment from our side of the counter in this year’s tournament with the huge favorites across the board.” A decade ago, mid-majors produced more green than St. Patty’s Day beer tap, but these days, due to NIL and the transfer portal, smaller schools don’t typically make deep tournament runs. When these Cinderella teams win, it’s good for oddsmakers. “We have not had a great tournament for two straight years on our side of the counter, so I’m hoping for a lot more parity and more ‘dogs covering or winning outright,” Esposito said.
So, who could be this year’s Cinderella? The Saint Louis Billikens are causing buzz. “I think there’s some value with Saint Louis against Georgia, and I think there’s some value with some other schools, too,” Esposito said. “I know Saint Louis might have to play Michigan in the second round, but with Robbie Avila, they’re a team loaded with seniors. They can hit the three; they hit over 40% with the three. I know it would be a really tough draw, but if they could get hot somehow from the three, I could see them make it really interesting.”
Whereas Missouri isn’t really a mid-major, as they plan in the SEC, they are somewhat off the beaten path in terms of notoriety. The Tigers play a higher-seeded, favored Miami team, but the game is in St. Louis, so it’s a de facto home game. Teams that play a difficult style can also be tough on opponents (styles make fights), and there might not be two more dissimilar teams than Texas A&M and St. Mary’s.
Says Esposito, “Texas A&M and St. Mary’s are a huge contrast in styles. You look at St. Mary’s, which plays a more deliberate, slowdown-style game. A&M plays a full-court press up and down tempo, so it’s a really interesting matchup, but we’ve seen that number kind of ping pong a little bit. If St. Mary’s is dictating tempo, great, but if they fall behind by a significant amount, do they have the tempo to make a run in that game?” He added, “I could see TCU winning a couple of games as a nine seed, but if they win their first game against Ohio State, they have to play Duke. It’s really hard for me to find a Cinderella that I really love.”
Bets To Know
As always, tournament betting isn’t limited strictly to spread, money line, and totals betting. A myriad of prop bets have also been added to the wagering menu, including the exact sum of seeds in the Final Four, the total of higher seeds winning in the first round, and wins by conference, among others.
Weekly Winners
What a hit across the NBA this past Tuesday! $5 to win $6.1k:
-Hornets -5 over Heat
-Hornets / Heat over 237
-Bucks / Cavs over 224.5
-Bucks +12.5 over Cavs
-Magic / Thunder under 223.5
-Magic +9/5 over Thunder
-Timberwolves / Suns under 221
-Wizards / Pistons over 232.5
-Nuggets / 76ers under 236.5
-Knicks -14.5 over Pacers
-Knicks / Pacers over 221.5
-Spurs / Kings over 236 (Push)